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ACUS11 KWNS 191843
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 191842
MOZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-192115-

Mesoscale Discussion 0463
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0142 PM CDT Sat May 19 2018

Areas affected...Northeast Kansas...northwest Missouri...far
southeast Nebraska

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely

Valid 191842Z - 192115Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...Scattered storms are likely to form by 20-21Z, and a watch
may be needed for hail, wind, and a tornado or two.

DISCUSSION...A cold front is currently progressing across central
KS, while a leading wind shift dissipates along a MHK to HUT line.
Visible imagery shows widespread heating now, in the wake of the
earlier convection with cirrus finally existing northeast KS. As a
result, temperatures are steadily rising through the mid to upper
70s F, with expanding CU fields.

Boundary layer moisture quality is questionable given the previous
overturning of the air mass, however, lapse rates aloft are quite
steep, and will support severe storms. Weak low-level flow beneath
50 kt southwesterly midlevel flow is resulting in primarily
straightline hodographs. However, any backing or strengthening of
the low-level flow due to pressure falls could easily support
supercells.

Storms may initiate near the cold front around SLN/CNK, and perhaps
along the stationary front to the north, initially cellular and
possibly evolving into an MCS as they approach northwest MO into
southern IA.

..Jewell/Weiss.. 05/19/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...EAX...OAX...TOP...ICT...

LAT...LON 38619778 39209780 39689756 40029696 40209640 40469537
40439479 40029432 39209429 38949490 38339713 38619778



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ACUS11 KWNS 280042
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 280042
TXZ000-280145-

Mesoscale Discussion 0463
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0742 PM CDT Sat Apr 27 2019

Areas affected...Portions of western north into west-central TX

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 107...

Valid 280042Z - 280145Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 107
continues.

SUMMARY...A pair of supercells producing large hail and damaging
winds will continue southeastward this evening. A small southward
extension of Severe Thunderstorm Watch 107 may be needed if current
trends continue.

DISCUSSION...Multiple instances of large hail up to baseball size
have occurred along with a tornado with a supercell that has since
weakened in Stonewall County over the past hour or so. Another
supercell to the south entering Jones County as of 0040Z has
recently strengthened in an environment favorable for continued
storm organization and intensity (MLCAPE around 1500 J/kg and about
45 kt of effective bulk shear). A large hail and damaging wind
threat will likely persist for at least the next hour or two as this
convection moves southeastward into west-central TX. Recent MRMS
MESH estimates suggest some of this large hail may be greater than 2
inches in diameter with the supercell in Jones County. A small
southward extension to Severe Thunderstorm Watch 107 may be needed
if these storms continue on their current trajectory. The severe
threat appears to be diminishing across the western and northern
portions of the Severe Thunderstorm Watch, and counties may be
canceled early if current radar trends continue.

..Gleason.. 04/28/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SJT...LUB...

LAT...LON 32660046 33170023 33439998 33379793 32499802 32019817
31769915 32010014 32660046



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