This is a multi-part message in MIME format...

------------=_1552517560-1983-17433
Content-Type: text/plain

ACUS11 KWNS 132252
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 132251
TNZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-140045-

Mesoscale Discussion 0197
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0551 PM CDT Wed Mar 13 2019

Areas affected...Parts of northern Louisiana...eastern
Arkansas...northwestern Mississippi...and western Tennessee...into
the Missouri Bootheel

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible

Valid 132251Z - 140045Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...An evolving line of intensifying thunderstorms is possible
near the Mississippi River through the 9-10 PM CDT time frame, in an environment conducive to the generation of potentially damaging wind
gusts and perhaps a few tornadoes.

DISCUSSION...A remnant, convectively reinforced surface front
continues to advance very slowly eastward toward the Mississippi
River, largely parallel to 50-60 kt deep layer ambient flow now
present across much of the mid and lower Mississippi Valley. This
front has generally cut-off the northward transport of richer
boundary layer moisture, associated with a continuing return flow
off the western Gulf of Mexico; but, mid 60s F surface dew points
are still present in narrow corridor as far north as the
Mississippi Delta region, with a narrowing plume of lower 60s
extending northward toward the Missouri Bootheel.

Model output, including the latest Rapid Refresh and HRRR, is
suggestive that, as stronger mid-level height falls continue
overspreading the region, cooling aloft will support further
destabilization and potential for intensifying thunderstorm
development along the boundary within the next hour or two. The
evolution of a narrow squall line appears possible through 02-03Z.

This may coincide with further strengthening of southerly low-level
flow, including to in excess of 70 kt around 850 mb. Given the
strong to extreme nature of the low-level wind fields and shear, the environment likely will be conducive to at least the risk for a few
strong, damaging wind gusts. Due to the uncertain character of near
surface thermodynamic profiles, tornadic potential is a little more
unclear. However, low-level hodographs are supportive of potential
for a strong tornado, particularly with any discrete storm
development just ahead of, or within the line.

..Kerr/Hart.. 03/13/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MEG...JAN...LZK...SHV...

LAT...LON 35579087 36429029 36308931 34998988 33609054 32699140
32469218 33679162 35579087



------------=_1552517560-1983-17433
Content-Type: text/plain; charset="US-ASCII"
Content-Disposition: inline
Content-Transfer-Encoding: 7BIT

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. ------------=_1552517560-1983-17433--

--- SBBSecho 3.06-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)