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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0196

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Wednesday, March 13, 2019 21:36:36
    This is a multi-part message in MIME format...

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    ACUS11 KWNS 132036
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 132035
    KSZ000-NEZ000-132200-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0196
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0335 PM CDT Wed Mar 13 2019

    Areas affected...South-Central NE...North-Central KS

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

    Valid 132035Z - 132200Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

    SUMMARY...Isolated, marginally severe thunderstorms are expected
    into the early evening from portions of north-central Kansas into
    south-central Nebraska. Locally strong winds and some hail are the
    primary threats.

    DISCUSSION...Strong boundary-layer heating has contributed to steep
    low-level lapse rates across western OK into extreme south-central
    NE, immediately ahead of an intense surface cyclone over southwest
    KS. Leading edge of large-scale forcing for ascent is spreading into
    this region with an arcing band of gradually deepening cumulus, with
    showers, now extending from Webster County NE-Saline County
    KS-Sumner County KS. Over the next few hours isolated thunderstorms
    should evolve within an strongly sheared environment characterized
    by surface-based cape on the order of 1000 J/kg. Given the strong
    shear, updrafts may struggle to organize due to the somewhat meager moisture/instability. Even so, robust updrafts should evolve with
    time and locally damaging winds and marginally severe hail should be
    the primary threats. At this time it appears the coverage/intensity
    of this activity will be insufficient to warrant a watch.

    ..Darrow/Thompson.. 03/13/2019

    ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...OAX...TOP...ICT...GID...

    LAT...LON 38659790 39749853 40669903 41379790 40869656 38659630
    38659790



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