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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0462

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Saturday, May 19, 2018 18:05:45
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    ACUS11 KWNS 191805
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 191805
    OKZ000-TXZ000-192030-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0462
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0105 PM CDT Sat May 19 2018

    Areas affected...Southwest Oklahoma into northwest Texas

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely

    Valid 191805Z - 192030Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

    SUMMARY...Storms are expected to increase in coverage throughout the
    afternoon, with damaging winds and hail expected. A watch is likely
    to be needed by 19-20Z.

    DISCUSSION...Surface analysis shows a cold front extending from
    central KS into the TX Panhandle, with a quasi-stationary front from
    northwest TX into northern OK. Recently, an extensive midlevel band
    of convection has formed which is hampering heating in parts of
    western OK. However, strong heating continues just south of these
    convective elements with temperatures approaching 90 F. Dewpoints
    will likely continue to mix from the lowers 60s F into the upper 50s
    F, but surface to midlevel lapse rates are quite steep, and severe
    storms are likely. It is possible that some of the midlevel cores
    eventually become surface based, and/or the differential heating
    zone on the southern fringe of the cloud canopy provides a focus.
    Nevertheless, models are adamant of extensive storm coverage by late
    afternoon. Strong to severe outflow, as well as hail will be
    possible.

    ..Jewell/Weiss.. 05/19/2018

    ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...OUN...LUB...AMA...

    LAT...LON 33500144 33820167 34470114 35679959 35889890 36049813
    35799788 35349789 34559835 33829879 33479933 33360035
    33500144



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  • From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Saturday, April 27, 2019 22:51:33
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    ACUS11 KWNS 272251
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 272250
    TXZ000-272345-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0462
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0550 PM CDT Sat Apr 27 2019

    Areas affected...Portions of west into western north TX

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 107...

    Valid 272250Z - 272345Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 107
    continues.

    SUMMARY...Initial threat for large hail will probably transition to
    more of a damaging wind threat this evening as storms move
    east-southeastward across Severe Thunderstorm Watch 107. A more
    isolated hail/wind threat near Midland, TX will probably not require
    additional watch issuance.

    DISCUSSION...Recent radar imagery shows a few supercells have
    developed across west TX to the east of Lubbock in the vicinity of a
    weak cold front. Multiple reports of 1 to 1.5 inch hail have been
    received from these storms as effective bulk shear of 45-50 kt acts
    to organize updrafts. Storm interactions/mergers are occurring
    across Dickens County and vicinity. Large surface
    temperature-dewpoint spreads to the south of the front and steep
    low-level lapse rates should foster a favorable environment for
    damaging winds, which may gradually become the primary threat this
    evening if storms can grow upscale. A more isolated hail/wind threat
    may develop south of the ongoing convection along a surface
    trough/dryline near and just north of Midland. This risk will likely
    remain too isolated to warrant additional watch issuance in this
    area.

    ..Gleason.. 04/27/2019

    ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SJT...LUB...MAF...

    LAT...LON 34700118 33829804 32519801 32570068 32150134 32130224
    33020157 34300163 34700118



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