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ACUS11 KWNS 131059
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 131059
LAZ000-ARZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-131230-

Mesoscale Discussion 0192
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0559 AM CDT Wed Mar 13 2019

Areas affected...Northeast TX...Southeast OK...Far Southwest
AR...Far Northwest LA

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible

Valid 131059Z - 131230Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Radar trends of an ongoing convective line will be
monitored closely and a Severe Thunderstorm Watch may be needed
across portions of northeast TX and adjacent southeast OK.

DISCUSSION...Convective line moving through north-central TX is
expected to continue eastward/east-northeastward over the next few
hours, moving into northeast TX and adjacent portions of far
southeast OK, far southwest AR, and far northwest AR. Thus far, this
line has produced numerous several wind gusts over 50 kt, with a few
reports of significant severe winds (i.e. gusts over 65 kt). The
low-level structure of the line currently still indicated a
well-organized system, with a sharp reflectivity gradient along its
leading edge and strong radar velocity values. VAD wind profile from
KFWS reveals a well-defined rear-inflow jet.

However, echo tops have been gradually decreasing during the past
hour or so, indicative of updraft weakening. The downstream airmass
is not thermodynamically favorable for line re-intensification and
the general expectation is for the diminishing intensity trend to
continue. Even so, the line is well-organized and may be able to
overcome the unfavorable thermodynamics. In any case, isolated
damaging wind gusts are possible, particularly if the line interacts
with any cells the develop within the warm-air advection ahead of
it.

Radar trends will be monitored closely and a watch may be needed if
trends suggest storm intensity will be maintained into northeast TX.

..Mosier/Bunting.. 03/13/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN...

LAT...LON 33709566 33839591 33999633 34439625 34509571 34339475
33649416 32619358 31959367 31899510 32589541 33149550
33709566



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