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ACUS11 KWNS 130919
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 130919
TXZ000-131045-

Mesoscale Discussion 0190
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0419 AM CDT Wed Mar 13 2019

Areas affected...North-Central/Central TX

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 21...

Valid 130919Z - 131045Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 21
continues.

SUMMARY...Threat for strong wind gusts and brief QLCS tornadoes
continues across north-central and central TX.

DISCUSSION...Well-organized convective line continues to progress
quickly eastward across north-central/central TX. The overall
character of the line appears to have improved over the past hour or
so, evidenced primarily by the sharpening of the reflectivity
gradient along the leading edge and the presence of several LEWPs
within the line across north-central TX. Moisture advection ahead of
the line has resulted in a more favorable thermodynamic environment. Additionally, southeasterly winds have gradually increased in
response to the continued tightening of the surface pressure
gradient. Overall vertical shear remains very strong. Recent KFWS
VAD sampled over 65 kt of 0-3 km bulk shear and a 0-1 km SRH over
650 m2/s2. Consequently, the overall environment remains supportive
of strong wind gusts and brief QLCS tornadoes.

Farther south across central TX, the line has recently intensified
as an embedded supercell moved northeastward from
Menard/Mason/McCulloch counties into San Saba. This embedded storm
may promote a forward surge within the convective line across
central TX. Airmass ahead of the line in this area is characterized
by dewpoints in the upper 60s, minimal convective inhibition, and
MLCAPE approaching 1000 J/kg. As such, this area is supportive of a
continue severe threat, with the resulting risk slightly higher than
areas farther north due to the limited convective inhibition.

..Mosier.. 03/13/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...EWX...SJT...

LAT...LON 33459756 33699729 33609676 33099648 31169697 30649861
31229852 32139794 33459756



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