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ACUS11 KWNS 130543
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 130542
TXZ000-130715-

Mesoscale Discussion 0187
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1242 AM CDT Wed Mar 13 2019

Areas affected...Portions of west/central TX

Concerning...Tornado Watch 19...

Valid 130542Z - 130715Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 19 continues.

SUMMARY...Both an isolated damaging wind and tornado threat should
continue across WW 19 in the next 1-2 hours (through 07Z/2 AM CDT).

DISCUSSION...Ongoing squall line which has produced multiple 40-50+
kt gusts over the past couple of hours should continue to pose an
isolated damaging wind threat for the next couple of hours as it
moves quickly east-northeastward across parts of west TX. The best
wind potential should remain confined to mainly the northern half of
WW 19 where the overall line orientation has become more orthogonal
to the mean mid-level southwesterly flow and weak but sufficient
instability exists to maintain the overall line intensity. An
embedded tornado cannot be completely ruled out with the line
beginning to encounter enhanced low-level shear associated with a
60-70+ kt southerly low-level jet.

Farther south, a bit more discrete/supercellular convection has
recently developed from Terrell into Val Verde county and vicinity.
This area has greater low-level moisture in place (mid 60s
dewpoints) and very strong low-level shear compared to locations
farther north. The isolated tornado threat should be relatively
greater across this area in the short term given the more favorable thermodynamics and storm mode. A small eastward extension in area
for WW 19 may eventually be needed for a small part of this area if
current storm motions continue.

..Gleason.. 03/13/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...EWX...SJT...MAF...

LAT...LON 29810200 30730198 31570155 32170115 32600101 32930098
32949979 32949915 31459918 29670002 29200086 29680149
29810200



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