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ACUS11 KWNS 191740
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 191739
KSZ000-OKZ000-192015-

Mesoscale Discussion 0461
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1239 PM CDT Sat May 19 2018

Areas affected...Northern Oklahoma into southern Kansas

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely

Valid 191739Z - 192015Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...Storms are expected to form across northern Oklahoma into
southern Kansas, with very large hail and a tornado or two possible.
A watch will likely be needed by 20-21Z.

DISCUSSION...Surface analysis shows a quasi-stationary boundary from
northwest OK into southern MO, with a cold front just northwest from
the TX Panhandle into east-central KS. Meanwhile, earlier storms
have left behind an outflow boundary, close to the synoptic front
along the KS/OK border.

Visible satellite imagery shows heating is occurring in the
post-outflow air mass, along with strong warming south of the main
front where temperatures are rising into the mid 80s F. Although
morning soundings showed a rather shallow moist layer from TX into
OK, some deepening of the moist boundary layer is expected near the
fronts, also aided by evapotranspiration. The presence of cold
temperatures aloft combined with this warming air mass is resulting
in strong instability with 700-500 mb lapse rates around 8.5 C/km.
This suggests vigorous updrafts which will support very large hail.
In addition, a tornado or two is possible in this region due to the
locally backed surface winds near the modifying outflow, and aided
by slight warm advection/lift atop this boundary.

..Jewell/Weiss.. 05/19/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...TSA...ICT...OUN...DDC...

LAT...LON 37279811 37719681 37789582 37619547 37169529 36709560
36439690 36289810 36259846 36449870 36699879 36989860
37279811



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ACUS11 KWNS 271935
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 271934
TXZ000-OKZ000-272130-

Mesoscale Discussion 0461
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0234 PM CDT Sat Apr 27 2019

Areas affected...Portions of the Texas panhandle and northwest Texas

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely

Valid 271934Z - 272130Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...Scattered severe storms are expected this afternoon and
evening with a threat for large hail and damaging winds. A severe
thunderstorm watch is likely.

DISCUSSION...19Z surface analysis shows a weak (~1007 mb) surface
low located near Childress, TX with a cold front located just south
of Childress extending northwest into northeast New Mexico. There
are only minor temperature/moisture differences along this front,
but surface observations show moderate surface convergence along the
boundary. Therefore, this area will likely serve as a focus for
convection later this afternoon. The 18Z AMA RAOB showed that
significant destabilization is still needed to generate deeper
convection, but the observed temperature/dewpoint vertical profile
is very similar to RAP forecast guidance for 18Z, and the RAP
continues to suggest surface heating and mid-level moisture
increases will lead to modest buoyancy with limited inhibition by
21Z. Farther southeast in the panhandle and northwest Texas where
dewpoints are in the mid to upper 50s, MLCAPE is expected to be in
the 1500 to 2000 J/kg range with 40 to 45 knots of effective shear.
The isolated to scattered storm coverage in combination with the
instability and shear will support supercells as the primary storm
mode. Given the inverted-v soundings and very steep mid-level lapse
rates (8.4 C/km measured by 18Z AMA sounding) large hail (some very
large) and damaging winds will be the primary threats. A severe
thunderstorm watch will likely be needed later this afternoon.

..Bentley/Hart.. 04/27/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SJT...LUB...AMA...

LAT...LON 34450250 35060191 35030144 34640018 34339957 34079891
33969827 32879865 33110071 33750207 34250238 34450250



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