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ACUS11 KWNS 130319
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 130319
TXZ000-130515-

Mesoscale Discussion 0185
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1019 PM CDT Tue Mar 12 2019

Areas affected...Southwest TX

Concerning...Tornado Watch 17...19...

Valid 130319Z - 130515Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 17, 19 continues.

SUMMARY...Damaging wind gusts and isolated tornadoes will remain
possible along a strong squall line moving across the region, and
with any isolated storms that may form ahead of the line.

DISCUSSION...A strong squall line continues to track eastward across
west TX, extending from west of Lubbock to east of Alpine, TX.
Several smaller scale bowing segments are noted along the line, with
corridors of enhanced winds and possibly brief tornado spinups
expected for several more hours. This has prompted the issuance of
new WW 19 until 10z.

A few isolated thunderstorms have formed ahead of the line over
Crockett county TX. This is along the leading edge of the mid-level
jet and in region of weak but increasing CAPE. VAD profiles at
MAF/SJT/DFX all show very strong low-level shear with 0-3km SRH
values exceeding 500 m2/s2. Recent CAM solutions vary on whether
this activity can persist/intensify. But if they can become
sustained, the environment suggests a threat of a tornado or two.
Otherwise, damaging winds and hail will be possible with these
storms.

..Hart.. 03/13/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...EWX...SJT...LUB...MAF...

LAT...LON 30610312 31670238 32990224 33280178 33010076 31760035
30470108 29930209 29940321 30610312



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