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ACUS11 KWNS 122318
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 122317
TXZ000-NMZ000-130115-

Mesoscale Discussion 0182
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0617 PM CDT Tue Mar 12 2019

Areas affected...Southwest TX and extreme southeast NM

Concerning...Tornado Watch 17...

Valid 122317Z - 130115Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 17 continues.

SUMMARY...Isolated supercells may form ahead of the primary
convective line, posing a risk of tornadoes and large hail.

DISCUSSION...Latest visible satellite imagery shows patches of
increasing cumulus clouds over Culberson, Jeff Davis, Presidio, and
Reeves counties of southwest TX. This area has finally cleared,
with strong daytime heating now occurring. 23z mesoanalysis data
indicates the area has become uncapped, and large surface pressure
falls suggest that forcing for ascent is overspreading the region.
This may aid in the development of isolated thunderstorm activity
ahead of the main squall line moving into the region. Forecast
soundings suggest steepening mid-level lapse rates and shear
profiles becoming very favorable for supercell development. Any
isolated storms that develop and persist in this environment will
pose a risk for tornadoes and large hail.

..Hart.. 03/12/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MAF...EPZ...

LAT...LON 30770509 32110468 32800323 31380301 29750431 30770509



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