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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0181

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Tuesday, March 12, 2019 23:18:02
    This is a multi-part message in MIME format...

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    ACUS11 KWNS 122217
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 122217
    TXZ000-NMZ000-130015-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0181
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0517 PM CDT Tue Mar 12 2019

    Areas affected...Southeast NM

    Concerning...Tornado Watch 17...

    Valid 122217Z - 130015Z

    The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 17 continues.

    SUMMARY...An intensifying line of thunderstorms will pose a risk for
    damaging winds across parts of southeast NM and far West TX this
    afternoon.

    DISCUSSION...Latest radar loop shows a line of intense convection
    extending across eastern Otero and extreme western Chaves counties
    of southeast NM. These storms have formed along a very strong
    Pacific cold front, where 2-hour surface pressure falls of 5+ mb are
    noted. The convection has begun to accelerate eastward, with
    individual components now moving at over 45 knots to the northeast.
    Strong forcing along the front, steepening low-level lapse rates
    ahead of the storms, and favorable low-level winds shown on local
    VAD and forecast sounding data support an increasing risk of
    damaging winds along the line. The main limiting factor will be the
    residual cool layer near the surface which may reduce the strength
    of wind gusts at the ground. However, These storms will also be
    moving off the Sacramento mountains into a more moist boundary-layer
    which may help to offset the near-ground stable layer.

    ..Hart.. 03/12/2019

    ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...MAF...ABQ...EPZ...

    LAT...LON 31840524 32430534 33360555 33800408 33310374 31890365
    30970539 31840524



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