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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0179

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Tuesday, March 12, 2019 19:22:58
    This is a multi-part message in MIME format...

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    ACUS11 KWNS 121822
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 121822
    NMZ000-121945-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0179
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0122 PM CDT Tue Mar 12 2019

    Areas affected...Central New Mexico

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

    Valid 121822Z - 121945Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

    SUMMARY...Increasing storm coverage is expected over the next 1 to 2
    hours. A few storms may become strong to severe with isolated large
    hail and damaging winds as the primary threat.

    DISCUSSION...Low-level moisture advection and surface heating has
    destabilized much of central New Mexico with between 250 and 500
    J/kg of MLCAPE at 18Z. 16Z HRRR forecast soundings suggest
    inhibition will be eroded around 18Z, and in fact, a storm has
    recently developed south of Socorro, NM suggesting inhibition is
    likely about gone. As upper-level divergence (suggested via
    satellite in western New Mexico) overspreads this area, expect storm development to become more numerous in the next 1 to 2 hours.
    Effective shear around 55 to 65 knots will be sufficient for
    organized updrafts, but the weak instability should limit the threat
    for more than a few stronger storms. Nonetheless, any rotating
    storms will have a hail threat, especially given the low freezing
    levels, and a well-mixed sub-cloud layer will support the potential
    for strong convective wind gusts. Widespread storm development and
    gradual stabilization of much of this region will likely preclude
    the need for a watch.

    ..Bentley.. 03/12/2019

    ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...ABQ...EPZ...

    LAT...LON 33090703 33490740 34330751 35000721 35250676 35310605
    34870548 34140520 33120532 32590546 32380576 32390623
    32870684 33090703



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