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ACUS11 KWNS 132232
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 132231
IAZ000-MOZ000-NEZ000-132300-

Mesoscale Discussion 0243
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0531 PM CDT Fri Apr 13 2018

Areas affected...far northwest MO...southwest into central IA

Concerning...Tornado Watch 41...

Valid 132231Z - 132300Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 41 continues.

SUMMARY...Isolated hail is the primary severe hazard over the next
few hours. A localized area in southwest IA is where the
conditional risk for a tornado is most favorable over the next 1-2
hours.

DISCUSSION...Surface analysis places a low near the tri-state region
to the south of Omaha with a warm front is largely stationary to the
east across southern IA. Temperature/dewpoint spreads are around 20
degrees F and the quality of moisture has probably played a role in
limiting tornado potential to this point. However, as surface temperature/dewpoint spreads lower during the next 1-2 hours, some
increase in tornado potential may occur briefly in a small area over southwestern IA becomes more favorable for low-level mesocyclones.

To the north of the boundary in western and central IA, a strong
storm or two may continue to pose a risk for marginally severe hail
for the next couple of hours.

..Smith.. 04/13/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...OAX...

LAT...LON 42319484 42179522 40989588 40499572 40289536 41979407
42279428 42319484



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ACUS11 KWNS 271400
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 271359
FLZ000-271530-

Mesoscale Discussion 0243
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0859 AM CDT Wed Mar 27 2019

Areas affected...east-central Florida Peninsula

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 271359Z - 271530Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...A couple of strong to marginally severe storms may
continue to produce hail the next 1-2 hours. An overall weakening
trend is expected to continue through the morning as storms track
southeast near the coast and eventually offshore.

DISCUSSION...While the 12z MLB RAOB was unavailable due to lightning
in the area at launch time, RAP forecast soundings indicate an
environment of steep midlevel lapse rates with long, straight
hodographs and modest deep layer shear. This typically is indicative
of splitting storms capable of hail, and a couple of left-split
cells have indeed produced severe hail across Brevard County. These
cells will track toward the southeast and move southeast and may hug
the coast before completely moving offshore.

Model guidance suggests convection should weaken with southward
extent as drier air moves into the region as the midlevel trough
shifts east into the Atlantic. Radar trends have typically favored
this thinking, but new cells are developing over northern Osceola
County in vicinity of a weak surface trough/baroclinic zone on the
north side of a surface low between the southeast FL coast and the
northwestern Bahamas. These cells may briefly intensify and produce
hail as they track further southeast. But, conditions are expected
to become less favorable with time and threat should be limited in
time and space. Given expected trends, a watch is not expected.

..Leitman/Hart.. 03/27/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MLB...

LAT...LON 28528075 27948032 27468035 27468056 27578078 27958107
28168122 28328122 28408116 28528103 28568093 28528075



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