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ACUS11 KWNS 191251
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 191250
MOZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-191445-

Mesoscale Discussion 0459
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0750 AM CDT Sat May 19 2018

Areas affected...parts of northeast Oklahoma...southeast
Kansas...and eastward into central Missouri

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 191250Z - 191445Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated hail exceeding severe levels may occur over the
next few hours with isolated stronger/elevated storms.

DISCUSSION...Latest radar loop shows regeneration of elevated
convection over the past hour, atop a remnant outflow from prior
convection. The storms are occurring near the nose of a veering of
the low-level jet, within an environment featuring steep mid-level
lapse rates -- and thus moderate elevated CAPE.

Shear through the cloud-bearing layer is not particularly strong,
with generally unidirectional southwest flow. As such, storms
should remain only weakly organized -- with perhaps occasional/weak
mid-level rotation. Further, as the low-level jet diminishes
through the morning, storms should eventually decrease in intensity
as well. In the mean time however, hail generally in the 1 to 1.5"
range may occur with the most vigorous storms.

..Goss/Guyer.. 05/19/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LSX...SGF...EAX...TSA...TOP...ICT...

LAT...LON 38319185 37439211 36879371 36709425 36299605 36389647
36939670 37779663 38319570 38759439 39049274 38319185



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ACUS11 KWNS 271632
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 271632
WIZ000-ILZ000-IAZ000-272230-

Mesoscale Discussion 0459
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1132 AM CDT Sat Apr 27 2019

Areas affected...Portions of northeast Iowa...Southern
Wisconsin...Northern Illinois

Concerning...Heavy snow

Valid 271632Z - 272230Z

SUMMARY...A potent mid-level low will bring periods of heavy snow to
areas along the Wisconsin/Illinois border. Areas receiving rain now
will transition to snow this afternoon before precipitation moves
out of the discussion area early this evening. Pockets of 1 in./hour
snowfall rates are possible.

DISCUSSION...Over the course of the last couple of hours,
precipitation across the Wisconsin/Illinois border has caused
temperatures to wet-bulb down to the low 30s from the low 40s.
Surface observations have shown rain turn to snow in southwest
Wisconsin with snow now occurring as far east as Janesville, WI.
Heavier areas of snow have also begun to shift out of northeast Iowa
into Wisconsin. The Mineral Point, WI ASOS has been reporting
moderate snowfall for the last hour. Temperatures should continue to
fall into the low 30s in the eastern portions of the discussion
area. Dual-pol radar observation from KDVN and KLOT continue to show
the rain/snow transition line within the second to third tier of
Illinois counties. As the mid-level low continues its approach from
the west, increased large-scale ascent and 850-700 mb frontogenesis
will support pockets of heavier snowfall, likely near 1 in./hour.
The heaviest snow should gradually taper off from west to east, with
eastern portions seeing heavy rates ending by about 7 PM CDT.

..Wendt.. 04/27/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LOT...MKX...DVN...ARX...

LAT...LON 42238930 42228976 42379076 42569131 42829154 43039151
43139126 43089066 42938997 42848920 42718817 42578775
42508768 42218772 42218858 42238930



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