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ACUS11 KWNS 100111
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 100110
MIZ000-100515-

Mesoscale Discussion 0177
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0710 PM CST Sat Mar 09 2019

Areas affected...Central portions of the Lower Michigan

Concerning...Freezing rain

Valid 100110Z - 100515Z

SUMMARY...Freezing rain is expected to continue, mainly for
southern/central regions of Lower Michigan for the next few hours,
before a transition to mainly rain later in the evening.

DISCUSSION...Sfc-700 WAA and large scale ascent, associated with an
approaching surface cyclone and potent negatively tilted mid-level
shortwave trough, have encouraged the maintenance of an east-west
oriented northward propagating band of heavy precipitation.
Beneath/ahead of the aforementioned precip band, surface
temperatures have been hovering around the freezing mark across
central parts of Lower Michigan and near Detroit. Aloft, a
near/above freezing temperature profile was noted up to 850-700 mb
per latest RAP forecast soundings and the 00Z DTX observed sounding.

The current thermodynamic vertical profile suggests that freezing
rain will be the dominant mode of precipitation in the short term,
as supported by KARB/KJXN ASOS data, where freezing rain rates of
.05-.10 inches/hr have been observed within the past hour. Surface
WAA however, is ushering in above freezing temperatures into
southwest Lower Michigan, and this trend is expected to continue. As
such, while freezing rain (occasionally heavy) is likely in the
near-term, an overall transition to rain is likely between 03-06Z,
as also supported by latest HRRR guidance.

..Squitieri.. 03/10/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DTX...APX...IWX...GRR...

LAT...LON 42908320 42288320 41798348 41768406 42228470 42838537
43498602 44308582 44438533 44018454 43318353 42908320



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