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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0169

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Saturday, March 09, 2019 16:45:36
    This is a multi-part message in MIME format...

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    ACUS11 KWNS 091545
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 091545
    TNZ000-KYZ000-ILZ000-MSZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-091815-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0169
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0945 AM CST Sat Mar 09 2019

    Areas affected...northeast Arkansas and northern Mississippi
    northward into far southern Illinois

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely

    Valid 091545Z - 091815Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

    SUMMARY...Scattered severe storms are expected to develop through
    afternoon from northeast Arkansas across northern Mississippi and
    toward the Lower Ohio Valley. A few tornadoes and damaging winds
    will be possible.

    DISCUSSION...A warm front continues to lift north across eastern AR
    and now into southeast MO and western KY, with rapidly increasing
    shear profiles. While instability is weak, a line of storms along a
    cold front over AR, and any additional storms that develop ahead of
    the upper vorticity max, may have the potential to produce tornadoes
    and/or damaging winds. Instability will be the main limiting factor,
    but excessive shear profiles and favorable large-scale lift may
    mitigate this.

    Southern parts of the line will move slower across southern AR into
    MS, but here instability will be stronger, and hodographs will
    clearly favor supercells.

    ..Jewell/Thompson.. 03/09/2019

    ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...OHX...PAH...MEG...LZK...

    LAT...LON 35239209 35439176 35769136 36289069 36779023 37188982
    37518926 37788851 37738801 37528757 36728752 35458787
    35068843 34728892 34458995 34319158 34429223 34929235
    35239209



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