1. Forum
  2. Fidonet Message
  3. WEATHER

  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0163

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Saturday, March 09, 2019 08:59:07
    This is a multi-part message in MIME format...

    ------------=_1552118352-1983-14118
    Content-Type: text/plain

    ACUS11 KWNS 090759
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 090758
    ARZ000-MOZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-090930-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0163
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0158 AM CST Sat Mar 09 2019

    Areas affected...parts of eastern Oklahoma...southeast Kansas...the southwestern quarter of Missouri...and the northwest quarter of
    Arkansas

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible

    Valid 090758Z - 090930Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

    SUMMARY...Risk for hail emanating from elevated storms will likely
    increase over the next 1-2 hours, possibly warranting WW issuance.

    DISCUSSION...Latest surface analysis shows a warm front from
    extending from east-central Oklahoma east-southeast across
    central/southern Arkansas. North of the front, a very stable
    boundary layer is indicated, with temperatures and dewpoints
    generally in the 40s.

    Water vapor imagery depicts the intense trough crossing the southern
    Rockies at this time, which is gradually acquiring negative tilt,
    and a broad zone of increasing ascent is also indicated downstream
    of the axis, west of -- and spreading into -- the discussion area.

    Model soundings across the region, and special 06Z ROABs, both
    indicate steep lapse rates above 850mb, atop the low-level stable
    air, with CAPE becoming increasingly sufficient for stout, elevated
    updrafts as additional moistening/theta-e advection aloft occurs in
    advance of the advancing trough. With flow aloft also increasing
    ahead of this feature, shear will support rotating updrafts where
    CAPE becomes sufficient for updraft longevity. Given these factors,
    risk for large hail should steadily increase over the next couple of
    hours -- possibly warranting WW issuance.

    ..Goss/Edwards.. 03/09/2019

    ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...LSX...LZK...SGF...EAX...TSA...TOP...ICT...OUN...

    LAT...LON 35039624 35209682 35979683 37719592 38309552 38559367
    38269191 36219211 34899295 35039624



    ------------=_1552118352-1983-14118
    Content-Type: text/plain; charset="US-ASCII"
    Content-Disposition: inline
    Content-Transfer-Encoding: 7BIT

    = = =
    To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. ------------=_1552118352-1983-14118--

    --- SBBSecho 3.06-Linux
    * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)