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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0162

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Saturday, March 09, 2019 06:44:36
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    ACUS11 KWNS 090544
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 090543
    SDZ000-NDZ000-NEZ000-091045-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0162
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1143 PM CST Fri Mar 08 2019

    Areas affected...central South Dakota

    Concerning...Heavy snow

    Valid 090543Z - 091045Z

    SUMMARY...Heavy snow rates of around 1 inch/hr are possible with an
    arcing band of precipitation that will progress northeastward
    through 09Z.

    DISCUSSION...Rapid low-level cyclogenesis is underway across the
    central High Plains, with strong sfc-700 mb southerly flow
    prevailing across much of the Central/Northern Plains in advance of
    an approaching/deepening upper-level trough. Broad low to mid-level
    cyclonic flow is aiding the advection of relatively moisture rich
    air, from the surface to about 500 mb, across the discussion area
    (noted in both the UNR 00Z sounding and multiple 04Z RAP forecast
    soundings). RAP forecast soundings and mesoanalysis data all also
    suggest northward 925-700 mb WAA advection and at least modest 700
    mb frontogenesis continues across the region, providing adequate
    deep-layer ascent within the dendritic (-12 to -17C) layer for
    efficient dendrite production, perhaps supporting snowfall rates
    around 1 inch/hr for the next 5 hours or so.

    A focused band of heavy snow, now crossing the NE/SD border, will
    likely continue producing around 1 inch/hr rates. The 00Z HREF, and
    03Z HRRR also depict the aforementioned band to maintain intensity
    as it progresses from southwest to north-central SD through 09-10Z.

    ..Squitieri.. 03/09/2019

    ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...FSD...ABR...BIS...LBF...UNR...CYS...

    LAT...LON 42960315 43910286 44930221 45690136 45980014 45659898
    45019859 44269857 43509944 42810062 42960315



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