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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0241

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Friday, April 13, 2018 21:50:27
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    ACUS11 KWNS 132150
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 132149
    TXZ000-140015-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0241
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0449 PM CDT Fri Apr 13 2018

    Areas affected...portions of central TX

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible

    Valid 132149Z - 140015Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

    SUMMARY...Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are forecast to
    develop late this afternoon or during the evening. The timing of
    storm development is uncertain along the dryline. A severe
    thunderstorm watch will probably be needed once sustained convective development is achieved.

    DISCUSSION...Visible satellite imagery shows an agitated cumulus
    field located in the vicinity of the dryline. The airmass east of
    the dryline is strongly unstable with 3000 J/kg MLCAPE and featuring
    surface dewpoints in the middle 60s degrees F west to 70 F east of
    I-35. The KGRK VAD shows 15-20 kt flow in the lowest 3 km AGL. The
    low-level hodograph will remain meager going forward in time as the
    southern extension of the LLJ shifts northeast into the Ark-La-Tex
    by early evening. Nonetheless, steep H7-H5 lapse rates and 50 kt
    deep-layer shear will support storm organization once storms
    develop, including the threat for a few of the stronger updrafts to
    become supercellular and pose a large hail and localized severe gust
    risk.

    Short-term model guidance suggests a couple of storms may arise from
    the towering cumulus as the dryline circulation is maximized this
    afternoon (22-00Z). It appears another period of thunderstorm
    development may occur later this evening (02-04Z) as mid-level
    forcing for ascent increases in conjunction with the Pacific Front
    sweeping east across TX.

    ..Smith/Guyer.. 04/13/2018

    ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...HGX...FWD...EWX...SJT...

    LAT...LON 30069627 30109885 30979863 31699789 31329573 30759577
    30069627



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  • From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Monday, March 25, 2019 22:49:30
    This is a multi-part message in MIME format...

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    ACUS11 KWNS 252149
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 252148
    GAZ000-ALZ000-252345-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0241
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0448 PM CDT Mon Mar 25 2019

    Areas affected...Central/southern Alabama

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 34...

    Valid 252148Z - 252345Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 34
    continues.

    SUMMARY...Strong/severe storms are moving southeast across central
    Alabama with large hail as the primary threat.

    DISCUSSION...Severe storms are developing across portions central
    Alabama and will continue moving southeast over central/southern
    Alabama with large hail as the primary threat given cool mid-level temperatures. The storm environment is characterized by MLCAPE of
    250-700 J/kg and 35-45 knots of effective bulk shear and the severe
    threat should continue until around sunset. After sunset, daytime
    heating will wane and storms are likely to weaken and become
    sub-severe. Damaging winds are also possible given the well-mixed
    boundary layer and if the developing supercells can form a
    quasi-linear segment in the next hour or two.

    ..Nauslar/Thompson.. 03/25/2019

    ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...FFC...BMX...MOB...

    LAT...LON 32168515 32618511 33058520 33498536 33478553 33288619
    33058708 33008755 32838831 32508837 31788844 31608794
    31608714 31828572 32168515



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