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ACUS11 KWNS 122316
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 122316
NJZ000-PAZ000-DEZ000-MDZ000-130015-

Mesoscale Discussion 0396
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0616 PM CDT Sat May 12 2018

Areas affected...Middle Atlantic

Concerning...Tornado Watch 85...

Valid 122316Z - 130015Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 85 continues.

SUMMARY...Severe threat will spread southeast across ww85 over the
next several hours. Hail/wind are the primary threats.

DISCUSSION...Remnant MCV from early-morning convection over northern
IN has moved east-southeast into central PA where it appears to be
partly responsible for aiding renewed thunderstorm development. Over
the last 1-2 hours a corridor of upward-evolving convection has
organized across southern PA and this activity is
spreading/developing east-southeast across central portions of ww85. Radar/observational data suggests this activity is generating
outflow that is surging well ahead of the convection but new
thunderstorms may ultimately develop near the outflow/synoptic front intersection in the vicinity of Baltimore. Primary tornado threat
will be with any supercells that evolve across eastern MD, utilizing aforementioned boundary where low-level helicity is maximized.
Otherwise, hail/wind are the primary threats.

..Darrow.. 05/12/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...PHI...CTP...LWX...

LAT...LON 40857682 40117379 38437431 39147738 40857682



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ACUS11 KWNS 190743
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 190742
GAZ000-FLZ000-ALZ000-190945-

Mesoscale Discussion 0396
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0242 AM CDT Fri Apr 19 2019

Areas affected...southeast Alabama...west-central and southwest
Georgia...and the Florida Panhandle

Concerning...Tornado Watch 86...

Valid 190742Z - 190945Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 86 continues.

SUMMARY...Risk for isolated severe storms and a tornado or two
continues.

DISCUSSION...Latest radar loop shows a complex/near-continuous band
of thunderstorms extending from northwest Georgia
south-southwestward to western portions of the Florida Panhandle.
Ahead of the convection -- and associated surface front -- resides a
moist boundary layer, with a narrow axis of ample instability over
the Florida Panhandle and nosing into western Georgia.

Area VWPs continue to reveal strong/favorable shear, with flow veering/increasing with height to in excess of 60 kt through the
lower half of the troposphere. As such, organized convection --
noted within the line where complex/rotating segments continue to
evolve -- will likely persist. Along with risk for locally damaging
gusts, a tornado or two remain possible as well. The greatest
short-term threat appears to exist in east-central and southeast
Alabama, in the Lee/Macon/Russell/Bullock county area where areas of
transient rotation remain evident within the complex line.

..Goss.. 04/19/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FFC...TAE...BMX...MOB...

LAT...LON 30008705 31518674 32548593 33418510 33298409 32458392
30038405 29588501 29978611 30008705



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