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ACUS11 KWNS 122105
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 122105
PAZ000-MDZ000-VAZ000-WVZ000-OHZ000-122300-

Mesoscale Discussion 0395
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0405 PM CDT Sat May 12 2018

Areas affected...Southeast OH/western and southern PA/western and
northern MD/northern WV/far northern VA

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 84...

Valid 122105Z - 122300Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 84
continues.

SUMMARY...Severe storms producing damaging wind and hail persist
across much of WW 84 late this afternoon. Northern portions of this
watch should be able to be cleared first, though storms currently
moving into the northwest part of WW 84 preclude any clearing of
counties at this time.

DISCUSSION...Trends in mosaic radar imagery showed a leading broken
band of storms extending from south-central PA (Huntingdon County)
to central OH (Muskingum County). Some of these storms have been
severe, thus far, producing large hail and damaging winds. Forcing
for ascent attendant to a mesoscale convective vortex (MCV) will
continue to advance from eastern OH through southern PA and northern
MD through this evening. This combined with moderate instability
and strong effective bulk shear along and south of the leading band
of storms will support a continued severe weather threat with the
stronger storms.

Meanwhile, a second shorter band of storms was located from northern
Beaver County, PA to Holmes County, OH, with this activity appearing
to be co-located with the MCV. The Beaver County storm was moving
to the east at 45 kt and could pose a severe threat. However, this
activity may be slightly elevated as it is located north of a wind
shift. Locally strong winds and/or hail cannot be ruled out, though
the overall severe threat across the far northwest to north-central
part of WW 84 may be diminishing.

..Peters.. 05/12/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CTP...LWX...PBZ...RLX...CLE...ILN...

LAT...LON 40448214 40858051 41077965 40967808 40797737 40557691
40257686 38827751 38847928 39028007 39058102 39048170
39568222 40448214



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ACUS11 KWNS 190445
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 190444
FLZ000-ALZ000-190645-

Mesoscale Discussion 0395
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1144 PM CDT Thu Apr 18 2019

Areas affected...southern Alabama through the western Florida
Panhandle

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible

Valid 190444Z - 190645Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Trends are being monitored for a possible increase in
thunderstorm organization and intensity during the next couple of
hours over the central Gulf coastal region. A ww issuance is
possible, but remains uncertain and will ultimately depend on
convective trends.

DISCUSSION...Storms have recently shown an increase in coverage over
the central Gulf coast region including extreme southern AL and the
far western FL Panhandle. The convection is discrete, but has so far
shown very little tendency for organization. Activity appears to be
forming in association with an increase in the southern extension of
the low-level jet which is responding to the next in a series of
vorticity maxima rotating through the base of the synoptic trough.
Dewpoints have increased to around 70 F south of the warm front,
which has contributed to destabilization (MLCAPE from 1000-1500
J/kg) along the central Gulf Coast region. However, the atmosphere
still has not yet fully recovered from the effects of previous
convection. Nevertheless, given increasing forcing for ascent,
modest instability, sizeable low-level hodographs and strong
effective shear, this area bears watching next couple hours for
evidence of organization and possible supercell development.

..Dial/Hart.. 04/19/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...TAE...BMX...MOB...

LAT...LON 30488757 31658715 32078641 31588522 30258548 30448663
30488757



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