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ACUS11 KWNS 122020
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 122020
OHZ000-KYZ000-INZ000-122215-

Mesoscale Discussion 0393
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0320 PM CDT Sat May 12 2018

Areas affected...Central Indiana and west-central Ohio

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible

Valid 122020Z - 122215Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Thunderstorm potential is increasing across central
Indiana and west-central Ohio. Primary severe threats will be
strong, gusty winds and hail. Area will be monitored for a potential
severe thunderstorm watch.

DISCUSSION...Recent satellite imagery shows increasing vertical
development with the cumulus clouds across central Indiana. This
area is on the northern edge of the warm, moist air and downstream
of an approaching mesoscale convective vortex (MCV), which is
located across central Illinois. As the MCV continues to move
east-southeast this afternoon, localized ascent will overspread the
warm, moist airmass across central Indiana and west-central Ohio.
This increasing ascent should be enough to lift/cool the remaining
capping inversion and allow thunderstorms to develop. Lapse rates
across the area are in the 7-8 C/km range and would support an
isolated hail threat with initial discrete cells. However, if
thunderstorm coverage increases as inhibition weakens, potential
upscale growth into a complex of thunderstorms may yield a
transition to more of a damaging wind threat. The area will continue
to be monitored for a potential severe thunderstorm watch.

..Marsh/Grams.. 05/12/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...RLX...ILN...IWX...IND...

LAT...LON 39988737 40338658 40378497 40268323 39958235 39238289
39008453 38958710 39988737



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ACUS11 KWNS 190154
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 190154
GAZ000-FLZ000-ALZ000-190330-

Mesoscale Discussion 0393
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0854 PM CDT Thu Apr 18 2019

Areas affected...southeast AL...the western and central FL Panhandle
and southwest GA

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible

Valid 190154Z - 190330Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

SUMMARY...Storms are expected to develop eastward into southeast AL,
the central FL Panhandle and southwest GA overnight. Primary threats
will be damaging wind and isolated tornadoes. Trends are being
monitored for a possible WW.

DISCUSSION...Broken band of storms from south central AL into the
extreme western FL Panhandle continues eastward at around 30 kt.
Tendency has been for the storms inland from the coast to out pace
the greater low-level jet and destabilization. With exception of the
northern end of the line, overall storms appear poorly organized.
However, the low-level jet will gradually develop eastward tonight,
and resulting moist advection should contribute to northward
destabilization with time. Recent observations show dewpoints
increasing to the upper 60s over coastal Fl and moisture should
continue to increase farther inland with time. This suggests that
storms may become better organized later this evening and especially
into the overnight with low-level hodographs and effective bulk
shear becoming supportive of organized structures capable of
damaging wind and isolated tornadoes.

..Dial/Hart.. 04/19/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...TAE...BMX...

LAT...LON 30568624 31548597 31788532 31628459 30718463 30088533
30568624



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