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ACUS11 KWNS 032122
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 032122
FLZ000-GAZ000-ALZ000-032315-

Mesoscale Discussion 0151
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0322 PM CST Sun Mar 03 2019

Areas affected...Far southeast Alabama...extreme southwest Georgia...western/central Florida Panhandle

Concerning...Tornado Watch 7...8...

Valid 032122Z - 032315Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 7, 8 continues.

SUMMARY...The potential for isolated damaging wind gusts and a
tornado or two is increasing ahead of newly developed convection in
the far western Florida Panhandle. The severe threat will then
decrease behind the main line of convection.

DISCUSSION...The primary band of convection, located from Russell to
Mobile Counties in AL, is currently progressing east-southeast
across southern portions of Tornado Watches 007 and 008, preceded by
a newly developed line of storms, located across Convington County
AL, to Escambia County FL. These storms are currently progressing
across an air mass characterized by rich low-level moisture and
modest low- to mid-level lapse rates (per 21Z RAP forecast
soundings), yielding MLCAPE over 1000 J/kg.

21Z TLH VAD profiler soundings also indicate up to 300 m2/s2 0-3km
SRH, with over 100 m2/s2 SRH in the 0-1km layer, suggesting at least
some potential for convective cells embedded in either of the
aforementioned lines to rotate. Still, surface flow has been veering
with time given the eastward translation of the surface low, and
this will likely limit tornado potential somewhat. As such, precipitation-loaded downdrafts inducing damaging wind gusts will
likely be the main threat associated with this convection, though a
tornado or two cannot be ruled out over the next few hours. As both
convective lines pass, the severe threat will diminish across the
area.

..Squitieri.. 03/03/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...TAE...BMX...MOB...

LAT...LON 30378743 30898696 31358619 31628544 31278435 30788426
30028465 29768522 29928596 30378743



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