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ACUS11 KWNS 122000
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 121959
NJZ000-PAZ000-DEZ000-MDZ000-122230-

Mesoscale Discussion 0392
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0259 PM CDT Sat May 12 2018

Areas affected...Southeast PA/northeast MD/northern DE/southern NJ

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely

Valid 121959Z - 122230Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

SUMMARY...Strong to severe storms are expected to move to the
east-southeast into southeast Pennsylvania by 5-6 PM EDT and
northern Maryland between 6-8 PM EDT. Damaging winds and hail
should be the primary severe risks, though a tornado threat cannot
be ruled out.

DISCUSSION...Earlier low-level stratus clouds have dissipated across
southeast PA, far northeast MD and southern NJ allowing for stronger
surface heating. This warming of the environment is supporting
steepening lapse rates, while moisture advection per south-
southwesterly low-level winds into the discussion area will result
in further destabilization through the late afternoon from south to
north. MUCAPE across MD and DE ranges from 1000-2000 J/kg. These
improving thermodynamics for thunderstorm development combined with
strong effective bulk shear of 40-50 kt already present across this
region with the approach of a midlevel perturbation/MCV will likely
allow storms to remain strong-severe as they advance from eastern
parts of WW 84 into the discussion area.

..Peters/Grams.. 05/12/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...PHI...CTP...LWX...

LAT...LON 39387447 39007494 38987605 39027680 39097736 39407728
39947706 40587692 40447560 40307492 39947405 39677413
39387447



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ACUS11 KWNS 190111
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 190110
ALZ000-MSZ000-190215-

Mesoscale Discussion 0392
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0810 PM CDT Thu Apr 18 2019

Areas affected...southeast Mississippi

Concerning...Tornado Watch 83...

Valid 190110Z - 190215Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 83 continues.

SUMMARY...Threat for damaging wind and a brief tornado is expected
to persist over southeast MS through about 03Z or 04Z. WW 83 is
scheduled to expire at 02Z, but may be locally extended in time as
needed.

DISCUSSION...This evening a line of storms has increased over
southeast MS in wake of earlier storms. This increase appears to be
in response to low-level destabilization associated with 50 kt
southerly low-level jet as indicated on recent Slidell VWP. A warm
front demarcating the leading edge of richer moisture with low 70s F
dewpoints is advancing north. Storms remain embedded within 50 kt
effective shear and this will support some organized structures. A
shortwave trough indicated on WV imagery ejecting northeast toward
western TN should provide the impetus for a cold front to advance
east into southeast MS by 03-04Z which should end the severe threat
by that time.

..Dial.. 04/19/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MOB...JAN...LIX...

LAT...LON 30928967 31708899 31728846 31348836 30608885 30538944
30928967



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