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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0147

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Sunday, March 03, 2019 21:06:56
    This is a multi-part message in MIME format...

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    ACUS11 KWNS 032006
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 032006
    GAZ000-ALZ000-032100-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0147
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0206 PM CST Sun Mar 03 2019

    Areas affected...east-central AL into central GA

    Concerning...Tornado Watch 7...8...

    Valid 032006Z - 032100Z

    The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 7, 8 continues.

    SUMMARY...The potential for tornadoes is seemingly most favorable
    with storms near and east of the surface low and as storms move
    within the warm frontal zone where pressure falls are maximized.

    DISCUSSION...Latest subjective surface analysis places a 1007mb
    surface low over central AL with a warm front extending east into
    central GA near Macon. Surface pressure falls range from 4-5mb per
    2 hours across the warm frontal zone. Surface temperatures on the
    immediate cool side of the boundary range are in the middle-upper
    60s degrees F but are in the 70-72 degree F range south of the
    boundary. It appears the lack of tornado production so far has been
    limited by modest low-level lapse rates (not quite warm enough
    boundary layer) and its influence on low-level updraft acceleration
    with moderate to strong mid-level mesocyclones.

    It remains unclear whether the bootstrapping process for
    tornadogenesis with existing supercells will occur as the storms
    move through the warm frontal zone or if an additional forcing
    mechanism (i.e., squall line cold pool, increasingly favorable
    large-scale support owing to more juxtaposition with the surface
    low) is required. Nonetheless, a tornado and and isolated damaging
    gusts will continue to be hazards associated with the stronger
    storms.

    ..Smith.. 03/03/2019

    ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...FFC...BMX...

    LAT...LON 32588593 32728363 32308335 32278519 32288633 32588593



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