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ACUS11 KWNS 031635
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 031635
LAZ000-MSZ000-031700-

Mesoscale Discussion 0142
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1035 AM CST Sun Mar 03 2019

Areas affected...south-central and southeast LA

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely

Valid 031635Z - 031700Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...The severe risk is increasing over south-central and
southeast LA. A tornado watch may be needed soon for parts of
southeast LA (near and north of Lake Pontchartrain).

DISCUSSION...The 9am CST raob from Breaux Bridge, LA (Vortex2SE
special raob) showed little remaining convective inhibition and a
profile exhibiting 1100 J/kg MLCAPE. Low-level shear is adequate
but a tendency for veering low-level flow with time as the surface
cyclone develops east across central AL will tend to limit hodograph
size with time. Nonetheless, a severe risk mainly in the form of
strong to locally severe gusts and perhaps a tornado may accompany
the more intense storms late this morning through the afternoon.

..Smith/Hart.. 03/03/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LIX...LCH...

LAT...LON 30729154 30959045 30518955 29988995 29749139 29959178
30729154



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