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ACUS11 KWNS 031600
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 031559
GAZ000-FLZ000-ALZ000-031800-

Mesoscale Discussion 0141
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0959 AM CST Sun Mar 03 2019

Areas affected...southern and central AL...western FL
Panhandle...southwest and west-central GA

Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely

Valid 031559Z - 031800Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

SUMMARY...The initial signs of discrete convective development are
occurring late this morning in the warm sector. Rapid environmental
changes are forecast to occur between 10am CST/11am EST and the mid
afternoon.

DISCUSSION...Visible satellite imagery shows widespread cloud cover
across the destabilizing warm sector to the south of the primary
frontal zone where the surface low is forecast to develop eastward
across central AL into north-central GA later today. Surface
dewpoints over the FL Panhandle and far southern AL have risen
around 3 degrees F in the past hour and are indicative of strong
poleward moisture advection occurring as the surface cyclone
develops. The warming/moistening are contributing to MLCAPE
increasing from near 0 J/kg to upwards of 1000-1500 J/kg by
early-mid afternoon.

Late morning VAD data show around 35-45 kt southwesterly 700mb flow
from KMOB/KBMX/KMXX/KEOX in central and southern AL but stronger
flow (50-55 kt) is now being observed farther west in Jackson, MS
(KDGX) and Slidell, LA (KLIX). Models show the flow intensifying
further over AL and GA this afternoon (55-60 kt 700mb). The end
result is a hodograph exhibiting little weakness (no veer-back-veer
tendency or a weak layer of winds). In summary, as moderate
buoyancy and strong/veering flow through the profile combine with
moist low levels, the threat for strong low-level mesocyclones
associated with the discrete storms will increase, along with a
corresponding risk for tornadoes of which a few may be strong.

..Smith/Hart.. 03/03/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FFC...TAE...BMX...MOB...

LAT...LON 31638830 32898673 33168582 33148441 32698405 31948400
31268437 30678499 30698736 30988805 31638830



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