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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0391

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Saturday, May 12, 2018 17:51:43
    This is a multi-part message in MIME format...

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    ACUS11 KWNS 121751
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 121751
    PAZ000-MDZ000-WVZ000-VAZ000-OHZ000-122015-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0391
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1251 PM CDT Sat May 12 2018

    Areas affected...Central and eastern OH/western to south-central
    PA/northern WV/MD Panhandle

    Concerning...Severe potential...Severe Thunderstorm Watch likely

    Valid 121751Z - 122015Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

    SUMMARY...A severe thunderstorm watch will be needed this afternoon
    into the evening for parts of central and eastern Ohio to central
    Pennsylvania, northern West Virginia and the Maryland Panhandle.
    Strong to severe storms are expected to develop by 3-4 PM EDT across
    central and eastern Ohio into western Pennsylvania, and spread to
    the east-southeast producing damaging wind as the primary threat.

    DISCUSSION...Early afternoon surface analysis showed a front
    extending from central IN through central OH (north of KDAY and
    south of KMFD and KCAK) and into western PA (between KPIT and KBTP)
    to an area of low pressure near KDUJ. A warm front extended
    southeast from this low into northern MD (near or east of KHGR) to
    central DE (between KDOV and KGED). Ongoing strong diabatic heating
    across the warm sector has resulted in sufficient weakening of
    surface-based CINH per modified PIT 12Z sounding with current
    surface conditions. This has resulted in the development of an
    extensive cumulus and moderate cumulus field across central and
    southeast OH into western and southwest PA. Boundary layer
    moistening combined with the strong heating and steepening lapse
    rates will support further destabilization with MUCAPE already
    ranging from 1500-2000 J/kg. Timing of an MCV, currently located in west-central OH, suggests an increase in forcing for ascent with
    this feature will proceed into the OH and far western PA portion of
    the discussion area by 19-21Z. This will support thunderstorm
    development, while a favorable CAPE/shear environment (with 50-kt
    westerly winds at 3 km per wind data at PIT and CTP) favors
    primarily a linear storm mode, producing damaging winds.

    ..Peters/Grams.. 05/12/2018

    ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...CTP...LWX...PBZ...RLX...CLE...ILN...

    LAT...LON 40498252 40858107 40877941 40727880 40397859 39947826
    39657802 39017882 38927986 38868203 39278265 40498252



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  • From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Thursday, April 18, 2019 22:59:16
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    ACUS11 KWNS 182259
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 182258
    ALZ000-MSZ000-190030-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0391
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0558 PM CDT Thu Apr 18 2019

    Areas affected...central through southwest AL through southeast MS

    Concerning...Tornado Watch 83...84...

    Valid 182258Z - 190030Z

    The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 83, 84 continues.

    SUMMARY...Threat for damaging wind and a couple tornadoes will
    persist from central to southwest AL and southeast MS through mid
    evening. The most organized storms will approach the Birmingham
    metro area near 00Z and WW 84 can be locally extended as needed.

    DISCUSSION...Line of storms along the MS/AL border continues
    eastward. Organized embedded structures continue to be observed
    including comma/bowing structure on the northern end over west
    central AL. This activity is moving east northeast at 40-45 kt, and
    will approach the Birmingham area around 00Z. This portion of the
    line has moved north of the greater low-level moisture, instability
    and low-level jet which suggests it may eventually weaken. In the
    meantime, strong mesoscale organization and forcing along and just
    south of the comma head region should help to sustain the storms
    another 2-3 hours. The southwestern extension of the line is moving
    slower at 30-35 kt. However, closer proximity to the
    eastward-migrating low-level jet with very moist inflow suggests
    these storms will remain capable of occasional organization
    including embedded supercells next few hours.

    ..Dial.. 04/18/2019

    ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...BMX...MOB...

    LAT...LON 31618818 32368773 33288756 33298663 32628656 30968792
    30748869 31618818



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