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ACUS11 KWNS 020931
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 020931
GAZ000-FLZ000-ALZ000-021200-

Mesoscale Discussion 0136
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0331 AM CST Sat Mar 02 2019

Areas affected...portions of the Florida Panhandle into far
southeast AL and southwest GA

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 020931Z - 021200Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...A strong storm or two could produce small hail and perhaps
some gusty winds through early morning. The overall severe threat
will remain limited, and a watch is not expected.

DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms have increased in coverage and intensity
over the last hour from the western FL Panhandle into far southeast
AL and southwest GA. The most intense cells are currently near the
Elgin AFB 88-D. Based on latest mesoanalysis, these storms are
likely elevated with weak to moderate inhibition along the coast and
well inland. These cells likely will remain elevated, with some
increasing chance for surface-based convection after sunrise when
heating and some marginally better low level moisture overspread the
area.

That being said, MLCAPE values ranged from around 500-1000 J/kg
across the MCD area with midlevel lapse rates around 7 C/km.
Additionally, effective shear around 35-45 kt is evident in both
objective analysis and regional 88-D VWP data. As a result, some
stronger, sustained updrafts are possible. Given environmental
parameters, marginally severe hail could accompany the strongest
cells. Should storms become surface-based, a strong wind gust also
would be possible. Given the marginal nature of the threat, a watch
is not expected at this time.

..Leitman/Edwards.. 03/02/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...TAE...MOB...

LAT...LON 29688502 29928578 30218649 30648660 30988656 31258608
31358526 31378474 31368426 31228356 30918317 30438340
30138377 29868447 29688502



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