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ACUS11 KWNS 011559
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 011558
FLZ000-GAZ000-011700-
Mesoscale Discussion 0135
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0958 AM CST Fri Mar 01 2019
Areas affected...north FL
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 011558Z - 011700Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent
SUMMARY...A strong thunderstorm or two is possible late this morning
through midday across north FL. Gusty winds (35-50 mph) potentially
capable of localized wind damage appear to be the primary threat.
DISCUSSION...Radar imagery shows a couple of marginally organized
storms over the eastern FL Panhandle moving east. Visible satellite
imagery shows mostly clear skies over north FL and surface
temperatures are warming into the lower to mid 70s. Despite the
very weak buoyancy profile sampled by the Tallahassee and
Jacksonville 7am raobs, forecast soundings show upwards of 1000 J/kg
MLCAPE developing across north FL. Westerly mid-level flow around
50 kt will at least support some marginal storm organization. The
overall dearth of weak low-level flow suggests tornado potential
will be very limited to nil. However, the aforementioned
destabilization of the boundary layer may support some isolated risk
of gusty winds with the stronger cores as the activity moves from
west to east across north FL during the next few hours.
..Smith/Hart.. 03/01/2019
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...JAX...TAE...
LAT...LON 30068407 30608354 30628169 30278119 29948145 29808351
30068407
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