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ACUS11 KWNS 132043
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 132043
ARZ000-MOZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-TXZ000-132215-

Mesoscale Discussion 0240
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0343 PM CDT Fri Apr 13 2018

Areas affected...north central Texas...eastern Oklahoma...northwest Arkansas...southeast Kansas through southwest Missouri

Concerning...Tornado Watch 39...

Valid 132043Z - 132215Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 39 continues.

SUMMARY...Threat for large hail, damaging wind and a few tornadoes
should persist into this evening from north central TX through
eastern Oklahoma, southeast Kansas, northwest AR and southwest MO.

DISCUSSION...Numerous thunderstorms that initiated along the dryline
continue through southeast KS, eastern OK and north central TX.
Additional storms are increasing in warm sector from northwest AR
into southwest MO. Overall organization of storms has decreased
during the past hour, possibly due to effects of any remaining
mid-level inversion on updraft strength as well as what appears to
be zone of weak, temporary subsidence aloft spreading through this
region. Wind profiles from VWP data still show some evidence of a veer-back-veer pattern, but effective bulk shear and low-level
hodographs remain sufficient for organized storms including
supercells and bowing segments. Moreover a secondary band of ascent
is in the process of overtaking the dryline, and this may continue
to erode any remnant warm layer aloft, possibly contributing to an
overall reorganization of storms this evening.

..Dial.. 04/13/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...SGF...SHV...TSA...ICT...FWD...OUN...

LAT...LON 31979783 33609702 35539661 36759631 37859562 37729367
36379385 34109517 31609596 31979783



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ACUS11 KWNS 251949
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 251949
GAZ000-TNZ000-ALZ000-252145-

Mesoscale Discussion 0240
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0249 PM CDT Mon Mar 25 2019

Areas affected...northern Alabama and vicinity

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible

Valid 251949Z - 252145Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Convection is forecast to increase in coverage over the
next 1-2 hours, with a few stronger cells becoming capable of
producing hail, as well as a few locally damaging gusts. A watch
may become necessary depending upon convective evolution.

DISCUSSION...Latest surface analysis shows some warming/moistening
of the airmass ahead of a surface front advancing across the
mid-South/central Gulf Coast states in a segmented manner. Initial
storms have developed over parts of Middle Tennessee nearer the
upper trough, where cooler air aloft in conjunction with limited
heating has yielded a pocket of modest /near 500 J/kg/ mixed-layer
CAPE development.

Though convergence is generally weak farther south into Alabama and
vicinity, modest CAPE should support isolated to scattered storm
development south of the initial convection, likely along the cold
front -- crossing northern Mississippi -- and/or a second frontal
segment/wind shift crossing northern and central Alabama.

Though instability will remain modest and convergence generally
weak, westerly flow increasing with height across the region is
yielding speed shear sufficient for organized updrafts. As such, a
few storms may become capable of producing hail. Gusty/locally
damaging winds will also be possible in a few locales --
particularly if any upscale growth into line segments can occur
through this afternoon/early evening.

..Goss/Hart.. 03/25/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MRX...FFC...BMX...HUN...

LAT...LON 34738744 35048642 35028554 34718488 33578527 33308613
33128737 33588804 34228785 34738744



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