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ACUS11 KWNS 262114
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 262113
TXZ000-262315-

Mesoscale Discussion 0134
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0313 PM CST Tue Feb 26 2019

Areas affected...Mid/upper Texas coast and coastal plain

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 262113Z - 262315Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...Some further increase in scattered thunderstorm
intensities are possible through early evening, with a few perhaps
becoming capable of producing marginally severe hail. Due to the
anticipated marginal nature of the threat, and relatively sparse
coverage, a severe weather watch does not appear necessary, but
trends will be monitored.

DISCUSSION...Since the late morning initiation of scattered
thunderstorm activity, there has been little substantial change to
the overall environment, aside from perhaps some additional
moistening on southerly low-level flow off the Gulf of Mexico, above
a residual cooler and stable near surface air mass. However, in the
presence of modestly steep mid-level lapse rates, Rapid Refresh
analyses suggest that this has contributed to most unstable CAPE on
the order of 500-1000 J/kg developing from mid Texas coastal areas
northward through much of southeast Texas. And it appears that this
may be supporting some general increase in thunderstorm intensity.
Aided by at least modest shear within the convective layer
(associated with 30-40 kt westerly mid/upper flow), it seems
possible that a few storms could intensify further and become
capable of producing marginally severe hail, as a mid-level short
wave trough approaches the region through early evening.

..Kerr/Grams.. 02/26/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...HGX...FWD...CRP...EWX...

LAT...LON 29259748 30269700 31189623 31409570 30859394 29759458
28899560 28169660 28099772 29259748



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