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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0133

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Monday, February 25, 2019 00:45:35
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    ACUS11 KWNS 242345
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 242344
    MTZ000-250545-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0133
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0544 PM CST Sun Feb 24 2019

    Areas affected...portions of southern MT

    Concerning...Heavy snow

    Valid 242344Z - 250545Z

    SUMMARY...Heavy snow will spread east-southeast across southern
    Montana late this afternoon and evening. Snowfall rates of 1-2
    inches per hour are possible at times through much of the evening
    and overnight hours.

    DISCUSSION...Snowfall rates will increase into the evening hours
    from the HLN to BTM to BZN vicinity toward LWT and BIL and
    eventually further east into southeast MT. A strong arctic surface
    high will persist over Saskatchewan into the northern Plains
    tonight, blocked by a strong cyclone over southeast Canada. As a
    result, a tight pressure gradient will remain aligned with the
    mountains from the vicinity of the Big Belts southeast across the Beartooth/Absaroka ranges. This will result in a band of strong
    midlevel frontogenesis as this effectively becomes the
    quasi-stationary arctic front. Further enhancing snowfall rates is a
    stream of warm/moist air from the Pacific at around 700mb, noted in
    regional forecast soundings and water vapor imagery. Forecast
    soundings from BIL show a saturated dendritic growth zone of nearly
    4500 ft through tonight. Additionally, cross section analysis
    indicates weak conditional symmetric instability, resulting in
    heavier snow bands embedded within the broader area of snowfall. As
    a result, snowfall rates around 1-2 inches per hour are expected
    this evening into tonight.

    ..Leitman.. 02/24/2019

    ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...BYZ...GGW...TFX...MSO...

    LAT...LON 45240855 45481149 45711229 46151285 46601297 47041261
    47251219 47281057 47070837 46860719 46390600 46160586
    45970560 45650550 45410565 45370622 45240855



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