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ACUS11 KWNS 300238
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 300237
KSZ000-NEZ000-300430-

Mesoscale Discussion 0948
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0937 PM CDT Fri Jun 29 2018

Areas affected...West central and northwest Kansas...south central
Nebraska

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible

Valid 300237Z - 300430Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated severe hail and gusty winds possible with loosely
organized convective complex. Convective trends are being monitored.

DISCUSSION...Isolated convective cells in far western Kansas have
recently loosely organized into a north-to-south oriented linear
structure, with marginally severe hail and damaging wind gusts
observed within the past hour. Though stronger effective bulk shear
remains north of the discussion area, plenty of buoyancy (3000-4000
J/kg MUCAPE) owing to 7.5+ C/km mid-level lapse rates remains in
place across the region.

Storms in northwest Kansas will be moving eastward normal to the
axis of a strengthening LLJ. Convergence along a frontal zone
roughly located along a OFK-GRI-GLD line, and elevated feed of
higher theta-E air associated with the LLJ, suggest that storms may
stay loosely organized and maintain themselves for at least a few
more hours, especially along the northern end of the convective
line. CAM guidance however suggests that storms will dissipate later
this evening.

Given the expected brevity of and isolated/marginal nature of the
severe threat, confidence in a WW issuance is not high, but
convective trends will continue to be monitored.

..Squitieri/Gleason/Edwards.. 06/30/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ICT...GID...LBF...DDC...GLD...

LAT...LON 38040132 38480129 39360138 39860133 40270088 40510018
40579909 40369837 39759837 38729934 38090030 37990047
38040132



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