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ACUS11 KWNS 300132
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 300131
SDZ000-300200-

Mesoscale Discussion 0947
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0831 PM CDT Fri Jun 29 2018

Areas affected...central SD

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 243...

Valid 300131Z - 300200Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 243
continues.

SUMMARY...A high-end hybrid supercell in central SD is capable of
hail 2-3 inches in diameter (perhaps wind driven) and 50-65kt gusts.

DISCUSSION...Radar mosaic shows an intense hybrid supercell near the
Ziebach, Stanley, and Haakon county border as of 0125Z. MRMS MESH
data has shown a large swath of hail 3-4+ inches in diameter across
southern Ziebach county from 0045Z-0125Z. The larger cluster of
thunderstorms is moving to the east around 40kt. The very steep
lapse rates sampled by the 00Z LBF RAOB are likely contributing to
the very prolific hail production with this storm. The storm will
likely move in an easterly or east-southeasterly direction along the
buoyancy gradient as implied by the 00Z ABR (254 J/kg MLCAPE) and
the 00Z LBF sounding (4947 J/kg MLCAPE). Severe gusts away from the
primary core are also probably severe gusts with a 53kt gust
observed at the Philip ASOS at 0108Z.

..Smith.. 06/30/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABR...UNR...

LAT...LON 44790133 44700034 44460008 44220024 44040052 44180133
44790133



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