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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0127

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Saturday, February 23, 2019 21:35:59
    This is a multi-part message in MIME format...

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    ACUS11 KWNS 232035
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 232035
    MSZ000-232130-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0127
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0235 PM CST Sat Feb 23 2019

    Areas affected...central and north-central MS

    Concerning...Tornado Watch 5...

    Valid 232035Z - 232130Z

    The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 5 continues.

    SUMMARY...A relative weakness in low-level shear has limited
    potential for storm-scale rotation up until now. Low-level shear
    and hodograph enlargement is forecast for the remainder of the
    afternoon into the early evening. A corresponding increase in
    severe risk is expected.

    DISCUSSION...KDGX VAD data through the early afternoon has exhibited
    relatively modest low-level shear (0-1 km SRH less than 150 m2/s2).
    Coupled with some weakness in the mid-level lapse rate above 500mb,
    the two factors have combined to limit storm organization in the low
    levels and the severe risk through 200-230 pm CST. However, a
    gradual increase in 700mb flow is expected through 6 pm and
    low-level storm rotation potential is expected to increase
    coincident with the hodograph enlarging and not exhibiting the
    degree of veer-back-veer tendency shown in earlier raobs. As such,
    gradual storm intensification and increase in the severe risk with
    an accompanying threat for tornadoes is expected.

    ..Smith.. 02/23/2019

    ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...MEG...JAN...

    LAT...LON 32649088 33898929 33838869 33368850 32399011 32319053
    32369084 32649088



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