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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0126

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Saturday, February 23, 2019 20:59:01
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    ACUS11 KWNS 231958
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 231958
    ALZ000-232100-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0126
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0158 PM CST Sat Feb 23 2019

    Areas affected...west-central AL

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible

    Valid 231958Z - 232100Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

    SUMMARY...Storms are intensifying in west-central AL and at least
    one has exhibited weak/transient rotation indicative of a marginal
    supercell. Will monitor convective trends in the short term
    regarding the need for a tornado watch before the risk of severe
    weather increases later this evening.

    DISCUSSION...A couple of storms have developed during the past 1-2
    hours near the AL/MS border to the east of Meridian, MS and west of
    Tuscaloosa, AL. The storms have developed in the warm sector and
    seemingly due to both diurnal heating and within a zone of low-level
    warm/moist advection. The thunderstorm activity will likely
    coincide with the diurnal heating cycle and it is possible this
    activity weakens with the onset of diurnal cooling. However, if 1
    or 2 storms can become bootstrapped and become unequivocally
    surface-based, the transition to supercell would occur and a risk
    for a tornado or two may accompany these storms. This possible
    scenario is highly uncertain but there is greater confidence the
    severe risk will increase towards early evening as the thunderstorms
    over MS move into western AL.

    ..Smith/Grams.. 02/23/2019

    ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...BMX...HUN...

    LAT...LON 32378827 33748790 34598740 34068698 32298766 32378827



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