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ACUS11 KWNS 222352
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 222352
MSZ000-ARZ000-LAZ000-230145-

Mesoscale Discussion 0121
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0552 PM CST Fri Feb 22 2019

Areas affected...northeast LA...southeast AR and western/northern MS

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 222352Z - 230145Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Thunderstorms will increase across parts of northern
Louisiana, southeast Arkansas and western/northern Mississippi this
evening. Severe potential will remain limited and a watch is not
expected.

DISCUSSION...Widely scattered thunderstorms were developing this
evening across northern LA into west-central MS in a strong warm
advection regime. A surface warm front was noted across central LA
into central MS/AL, and should begin to advance northward with time
tonight. As this occurs, the warm sector will continue to
destabilize with northward extent. However, most convection is
expected to remain elevated on the cool side of the boundary, or to
quickly become elevated as convection crosses the boundary into
cooler air. This will tend to limit damaging wind potential despite
some organized updrafts in strong effective shear environment.

Because deep layer shear is supportive of organized cells, some
midlevel rotation may be noted as convection increases tonight.
However, steeper midlevel lapse rates are not anticipated to spread
eastward into the region until after 06z tonight when stronger
height falls commence and the low level jet increases in response.
As such, any stronger convection will be rather transient through
the evening hours with limited potential for severe thunderstorms.
An isolated strong storm may occur south of the MCD area across
southern LA/southern MS where better instability exists, but weak
shear and lack of forcing for ascent also will limit severe
potential further south. As such, a watch is not anticipated this
evening.

..Leitman/Hart.. 02/22/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MEG...JAN...LZK...LCH...SHV...

LAT...LON 32748976 31989096 31629174 31449245 31509292 31679315
31949321 32299319 32649306 33439241 34049125 34369037
34378993 34328953 34078924 33818916 33528915 33288924
32748976



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