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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0120

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Friday, February 22, 2019 22:44:55
    This is a multi-part message in MIME format...

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    ACUS11 KWNS 222144
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 222144
    MSZ000-LAZ000-222345-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0120
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0344 PM CST Fri Feb 22 2019

    Areas affected...Southern Mississippi...Portions of Eastern
    Louisiana

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

    Valid 222144Z - 222345Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

    SUMMARY...A few strong/marginally severe storms are possible through
    early evening. A few damaging wind gusts are possible. No watch is
    anticipated.

    DISCUSSION...Current KLIX radar imagery shows two stronger,
    diurnally-driven thunderstorms ongoing in southern
    Mississippi/eastern Louisiana. These cells are south of a warm front/differential heating boundary currently situated from
    southeast Texas to east-central Mississippi. The warm/moist airmass
    supports MLCAPE values of 500-1000 J/kg. Though relatively strong
    deep layer shear is in place -- 50-55 kts -- weak mid-level lapse
    rates are limiting overall storm intensity. These thunderstorms have
    exhibited some weak mid-level rotation, but weak low-level wind
    fields should limit the tornado risk unless storms interact with the
    boundary to the north. Damaging wind gusts appear to be the primary
    threat with this activity. No watch is anticipated.

    ..Wendt/Grams.. 02/22/2019

    ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...JAN...LIX...

    LAT...LON 30929140 31329108 31559054 31729011 31708974 31358944
    30958939 30778956 30618991 30309030 30199086 30429128
    30689145 30929140



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