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ACUS11 KWNS 292330
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 292329
KSZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-COZ000-NMZ000-300200-

Mesoscale Discussion 0946
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0629 PM CDT Fri Jun 29 2018

Areas affected...Texas Panhandle...Oklahoma Panhandle...far
southeast Colorado...western Kansas

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 292329Z - 300200Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated severe wind gusts and large hail may occur with
the strongest and longest lived updrafts, particularly in northern
portions of the discussion area. A WW issuance is not likely.

DISCUSSION...Scattered storms have recently developed in far
southeast Colorado into the Texas Panhandle in response to localized
lift associated with a weak low-pressure trough and strong heating
associated with a well-mixed boundary layer. Though deep-layer and
low-level shear are poor throughout the discussion area, buoyancy is
ample (given steep mid-level lapse rates over 7.5-9 C-km, with up to
2000-3000 J/kg MLCAPE present). Any updraft that can sustain itself
in this highly unstable environment has the potential to produce at
least marginally severe hail. Strong, gusty winds are also possible
given that the airmass below 700 mb is dry enough to promote strong
evaporative cooling.

Later in the evening, an increase in the nocturnal low-level jet is
expected, with enhanced convergence along the jet nose near the
Kansas/Nebraska border. Here, storms may have the potential to
sustain themselves for longer periods of time and perhaps become at
least loosely organized given the convergence and associated feed of
higher theta-E air at the low-level jet terminus (as indicated by a
variety of model guidance).

Still, lack of stronger shear suggests that the overall severe
threat will be too sparse to warrant a WW. As such, a WW issuance is
not expected at this time.

..Squitieri/Gleason/Edwards.. 06/29/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DDC...GLD...LUB...AMA...PUB...ABQ...

LAT...LON 37040280 37750248 38650193 39380127 39670044 39660000
39379982 37859979 37080009 36510020 35660022 34810031
34480046 34200092 34110168 34240237 34490291 34980314
37040280



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