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ACUS11 KWNS 292258
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 292257
SDZ000-NDZ000-300000-

Mesoscale Discussion 0945
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0557 PM CDT Fri Jun 29 2018

Areas affected...central SD...far south-central ND

Concerning...Severe potential...Severe Thunderstorm Watch likely

Valid 292257Z - 300000Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...Thunderstorms will likely move to the east beyond the
existing eastern part of the severe thunderstorm watch 242. Upscale
growth will probably occur this evening with severe gusts 60-75 mph
gusts and large hail possible with the stronger thunderstorms.

DISCUSSION...Radar mosaic shows two hail-prolific supercells over
western SD to the immediate north of the Black Hills. Water-vapor
imagery shows a vigorous mid-level shortwave trough acquiring a
negative tilt and pivoting eastward over southwest MT and western WY
towards the northern Great Plains. Warm temperatures (80s degrees
F) east of the ongoing storm activity and a moist boundary layer
(middle 60s dewpoints) will aid in supporting storm development
farther east into central SD. Strong 0-6km shear (50kt) will
strongly favor organized storm structures through the evening. It
appears upscale growth into 1 or more small clusters will continue
east beyond the eastern counties of severe thunderstorm watch 242
and approach the MO River late this evening. The initial hazards
with the stronger storms are very large hail (potentially 2-3 inches
in diameter) and 50-65 kt gusts in the RFDs of supercells. The risk
for severe gusts will gradually become greater than the hail risk
once storms transition into primarily a cold pool-aided convective
complex.

..Smith/Edwards.. 06/29/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABR...BIS...UNR...

LAT...LON 45930194 46220159 46370001 45309963 43070048 43010206
45930194



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