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ACUS11 KWNS 212340
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 212340
GAZ000-ALZ000-220145-

Mesoscale Discussion 0119
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0540 PM CST Thu Feb 21 2019

Areas affected...portions of central Alabama into central Georgia

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 212340Z - 220145Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...Risk for a brief tornado associated with low-topped
convection will exist over the next few hours. Watch issuance is
not expected.

DISCUSSION...Latest radar continues to show generally
weak/low-topped convection -- producing little in the way of
lightning -- across portions of Alabama and Georgia. Ample
low-topped CAPE and sufficient shear for storm rotation exists
across this region, near a weak central Alabama frontal wave and the associated/eastward-extending warm front. However, the larger-scale environment remains generally unsupportive of stronger/more
organized convection, with short-wave ridging aloft to gradually
increase across the region tonight.

However, a few stronger cells near the aforementioned warm front
have exhibited organization/low-level rotation over the past hour or
so; specifically, a cell which is exiting northeast Harris County GA
and moving into southern Meriwether County has exhibited sustained
low-level rotation and appears capable of producing a weak tornado
as it interacts with low-level vorticity in the vicinity of the
surface warm front.

Though a few additional cells may also follow a similar evolution
this evening, overall risk is expected to remain limited/local --
and thus watch issuance is not anticipated.

..Goss.. 02/21/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CHS...CAE...FFC...BMX...MOB...

LAT...LON 33308294 32938259 32798198 32538295 32678388 32468497
32138616 31688724 31838806 32858702 33198635 33638535
33548394 33648307 33308294



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