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ACUS11 KWNS 131907
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 131906
MOZ000-IAZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-132130-

Mesoscale Discussion 0239
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0206 PM CDT Fri Apr 13 2018

Areas affected...Eastern Kansas...Northwest Missouri...Far Southeast Nebraska...Southern Iowa

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely

Valid 131906Z - 132130Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...A severe threat is likely to develop across northeast
Kansas, northwest Missouri and southern Iowa over the next couple of
hours. Large hail and wind damage will be the initial threat but a
tornado threat is expected to eventually develop. Weather watch
issuance will likely be needed across the region this afternoon.

DISCUSSION...The latest surface analysis shows a 991 mb low over far
southeast Nebraska with a cold front extending south-southwestward
from the low into northeast and central Kansas. A dryline begins
near the front in eastern Kansas and extends southward into northern
Oklahoma. Thunderstorms are developing along the dryline in
southeast Kansas with other cells initiating to the north of the low
in the Omaha area. This convection is expected to increase in
coverage as the cap weakens over the next hour or so. The storms
should reach northwest Missouri and southwest Iowa by mid afternoon.

Ahead of the storms, a corridor of low-level moisture is analyzed
from far southeast Kansas northward into far northwest Missouri
where surface dewpoints are in the lower to mid 60s F. The RAP is
showing MLCAPE values from eastern Kansas into far southwest Iowa in
the 2000 to 2500 J/kg range. In addition, forecast soundings
steadily increase deep-layer shear along the instability corridor
through late this afternoon. 0-6 km shear should reach the 40 to 50
kt range which will be favorable for supercell development. The
instability, shear and steep mid-level lapse rates will be support
large hail formation with the stronger updrafts. Damaging wind gusts
will also be likely as storm organize. As deep-layer shear and
low-level shear increase later this afternoon, a tornado threat will
also likely develop.

..Broyles/Hart.. 04/13/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...SGF...DMX...EAX...OAX...TOP...ICT...

LAT...LON 37869651 38009477 39089392 40369332 41209342 41469430
41549544 41159619 40559642 39759647 38359705 37869651



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ACUS11 KWNS 251711
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 251710
LAZ000-TXZ000-251945-

Mesoscale Discussion 0239
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1210 PM CDT Mon Mar 25 2019

Areas affected...Portions of southeast TX and southwestern LA

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 251710Z - 251945Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...An isolated large hail and gusty wind threat should exist
this afternoon. Watch issuance is unlikely.

DISCUSSION...A surface cold front is located over southeast TX and
southwestern LA this afternoon based on recent surface observations
and visible satellite imagery. A thunderstorm has gradually
strengthened along the front near the TX/LA border where diurnal
heating has encouraged MLCAPE around 1000 J/kg to develop per recent mesoanalysis estimates. Low-level flow across this region remains
generally weak, with the LCH and HGX VWPs showing westerly winds of
25 kt or less in the lowest 3 km AGL. But, mid to upper-level
westerly winds do strengthen with height, and 35-40 kt of effective
bulk shear should be enough to support some updraft organization.
Additional thunderstorms will probably develop this afternoon along
the front and move east-southeastward. Isolated large hail may occur
due to the strong uni-directional flow present above 3 km and some
modest steepening of mid-level lapse rates. Gusty downdraft winds
may occur as well where low-level lapse rates become steepened. With
the large-scale ascent expected to remain minimal across this
region, thunderstorm coverage and related severe threat will
probably remain too isolated to justify watch issuance.

..Gleason/Hart.. 03/25/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LCH...HGX...

LAT...LON 29159560 30139596 30529596 30869575 31069516 31009451
31029345 30909194 30279165 29899148 29569151 29449185
29559263 29739323 29649403 29369466 28959517 29159560



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