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ACUS11 KWNS 202332
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 202332
PAZ000-NYZ000-DEZ000-MDZ000-DCZ000-VAZ000-WVZ000-210330-

Mesoscale Discussion 0117
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0532 PM CST Wed Feb 20 2019

Areas affected...Southern New York...Central Pennsylvania...Central Maryland...and northern Virginia

Concerning...Freezing rain

Valid 202332Z - 210330Z

SUMMARY...A large area of moderate rain is moving toward an area
with temperatures at or below freezing. Temperatures will remain
mostly steady through the evening and into the early overnight
hours. Total freezing rain accumulations in excess of 0.25" are
possible, especially in central Pennsylvania.

DISCUSSION...A large area of isentropic lift is spreading moderate
rainfall across Ohio and Pennsylvania currently. This area of
precipitation is starting to move into an area with surface
temperatures at or below freezing. RAP forecast soundings and
surface observations suggest freezing rain will be the primary
precip type through the evening. Surface temperatures are expected
to remain mostly steady with only a slow increase by the early
overnight hours. The HREF mean accumulated QPF is around 0.5" across
much of Pennsylvania. This will likely lead to ice accumulations in
excess of 0.25" in many locations. The best chance for higher ice
accumulations will be in central Pennsylvania into southern New York
where surface temperatures are in the upper 20s and surface winds
are 10 to 15 mph and thus ice accretion efficiency will be
maximized. Temperatures are expected to increase above freezing
around the time the precipitation is coming to an end, however,
below freezing temperatures may remain longer in some of the
protected valleys within the mountainous terrain. This may lead to
additional light ice accumulation as the dry slot moves in aloft and
drizzle falls in the wake of the heavier precipitation. Outside of
these protected areas, temperatures should rise above freezing which
will end the threat for additional icing.

..Bentley.. 02/20/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...PHI...BGM...BUF...CTP...LWX...RNK...PBZ...CLE...

LAT...LON 40447932 41137967 41227971 42107963 42577902 42747818
42637729 42217624 41547548 40437545 39477572 39097678
38817744 38597802 38187877 37807927 38457922 39677896
40447932



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