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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0114

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Wednesday, February 20, 2019 13:30:09
    This is a multi-part message in MIME format...

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    ACUS11 KWNS 201230
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 201229
    ALZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-201500-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0114
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0629 AM CST Wed Feb 20 2019

    Areas affected...Southeast Louisiana...much of southern Mississippi

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible

    Valid 201229Z - 201500Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

    SUMMARY...A damaging wind or tornado risk may develop later this
    morning, and convective trends are being monitored.

    DISCUSSION...Showers and thunderstorms continue to gradually
    increase in coverage early this morning as a warm front lifts
    northward across MS. Recently, the JAN observation has warmed
    significantly, and this trend will continue across the remainder of
    central and eastern MS as well as western AL later today.

    Morning soundings from the region indicate the inversion above 700
    mb has weakened, with a deepening of the moist boundary layer.
    Modified 12Z soundings indicate that low to mid 70s F temperatures
    will result in surface-based parcels, and shear profiles are
    favorable for supercells including a tornado risk with effective SRH
    of 300-400 m2/s2 in place. While diurnal heating will be limited due
    to clouds, continued warm advection and deeper ascent near the
    approaching cold front may support an increase in storm intensity
    primarily after 15Z, with a few supercells possible.

    ..Jewell/Edwards.. 02/20/2019

    ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...MOB...JAN...LIX...

    LAT...LON 32159060 32899012 33238981 33268905 32848853 32248843
    31768844 31378843 30898845 30428851 30138877 29898929
    29648973 29669019 29739056 29899101 30229138 30509156
    30789157 31819103 32159060



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