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ACUS11 KWNS 200826
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 200825
PAZ000-WVZ000-OHZ000-KYZ000-INZ000-201430-

Mesoscale Discussion 0112
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0225 AM CST Wed Feb 20 2019

Areas affected...Central and southern Indiana...central Ohio...far
northern Kentucky...far western West Virginia...far western
Pennsylvania

Concerning...Winter mixed precipitation

Valid 200825Z - 201430Z

SUMMARY...Heavy wintry mixed precipitation will continue across the
area for a few more hours, before above-freezing surface
temperatures advect into the region, with precipitation
transitioning to nearly all rain.

DISCUSSION...Very strong sfc-700 mb WAA coincident with a 500 mb
vort max traversing the area, and convergence induced by 700 mb
frontogenesis, continue to promote deep-layer ascent and associated
heavy precipitation across the discussion area. Current RAP forecast
soundings depict deep, saturated profiles, with surface temperatures
just below freezing, and temperatures in the 925-800 mb layer nearly
coinciding 0C. In addition, KIND and KILN dual-polarimetric radar
data indicate a mixture of heavy sleet, with some snowfall across
northern areas of the discussion area, with mainly freezing rain and
some sleet farther south.

With a nearly saturated surface profile, and with the aforementioned
strong WAA in place, wet-bulb zero temperatures will continue to
surge northward over the next few hours. A transition to mainly
rain, with some freezing rain and perhaps light sleet left over near
the Ohio/Indiana/Kentucky border will then take place. Latest
high-resolution model guidance supports a mixture of heavier snow,
mixed with sleet and some freezing rain, will continue northeast
into Pennsylvania by sunrise.

..Squitieri.. 02/20/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...PBZ...RLX...CLE...JKL...ILN...LMK...IWX...IND...

LAT...LON 38838719 39168749 39608742 40128667 40288570 40618443
40618291 40748113 40868020 40548003 38868157 38588194
38408364 38398492 38838719



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