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ACUS11 KWNS 161413
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 161413
SDZ000-NDZ000-161545-

Mesoscale Discussion 0750
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0913 AM CDT Sat Jun 16 2018

Areas affected...Portions of northern South Dakota and southern
North Dakota

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible

Valid 161413Z - 161545Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...A localized swath of severe hail remains possible with an
isolated supercell over northern South Dakota this morning. Due to
uncertainty regarding expected coverage/persistence of the threat,
the need for a watch is uncertain.

DISCUSSION...An isolated supercell, very likely producing severe
hail based on a myriad of radar signatures, is progressing northeast
across Corson Co, SD around 20-25 kt. Although convectively
contaminated, the 12Z ABR sounding suggested the presence of
favorable mid-level buoyancy (associated with a residual EML over
the region). Additionally, ABR VWP and mesoanalysis data indicate
40+ kt of effective shear is available for continued updraft
rotation and large hail growth. Uncertainty exists regarding the
development of other severe cells, as well as the persistence of
this particular supercell, due to the somewhat nebulous nature of
large-scale ascent. Therefore, watch issuance is fairly uncertain.
Still, the presence of some warm advection around 850-700mb,
combined with non-linear effects from the rotating updraft itself,
may maintain this threat through late morning as the cell continues
northeast.

..Picca/Grams.. 06/16/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FGF...ABR...BIS...UNR...

LAT...LON 45810164 46519993 46799862 46689800 45789774 45219793
44810030 44560211 44750254 45810164



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