• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0109

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Tuesday, February 19, 2019 19:08:00
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    ACUS11 KWNS 191807
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 191807
    OKZ000-192200-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0109
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1207 PM CST Tue Feb 19 2019

    Areas affected...Portions of central Oklahoma and Vicinity

    Concerning...Winter mixed precipitation

    Valid 191807Z - 192200Z

    SUMMARY...An area of precipitation lifting northward from the Red
    River will encounter colder air to the north. Both freezing rain and
    sleet will be possible within the I-44 corridor, including the OKC
    metro area. Farther northwest, snow will be more likely. Heaviest
    precipitation should occur between 2-4 pm CST.

    DISCUSSION...Current radar mosaic shows an area of precipitation
    moving northward out of north Texas and crossing the Red River.
    Temperatures in the I-44 corridor have risen slightly since this
    morning to the low 30s with upper 20s to the northwest. A
    complicating factor in where the highest freezing rain potential
    will exist is the warmer surface temperatures in northeast Oklahoma
    leading to modest warm air advection into the discussion area.
    Dewpoints remain in the low 20s in that region, however, and some
    decrease in temperature due to precipitation-cooled air is possible
    as drier air continues to advect in. The 18 UTC OUN sounding shows a pronounced, saturated warm nose of +3-4C centered around 825 mb.
    This would indicate that freezing rain will be the predominant
    precipitation in this area, though some sleet is possible within heavier/convective elements. Farther to the northwest, generally
    colder 850 mb temperatures should keep more of the precipitation as
    snow. Expect the heaviest precipitation to occur from 2-4 pm CST.

    ..Wendt.. 02/19/2019

    ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...TSA...OUN...

    LAT...LON 35329988 36349820 36769713 36599657 36299623 36039618
    35589617 35379612 34839690 34289775 34209850 34529929
    34599970 35329988



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