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ACUS11 KWNS 161330
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 161329
MNZ000-SDZ000-NDZ000-161530-

Mesoscale Discussion 0749
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0829 AM CDT Sat Jun 16 2018

Areas affected...Portions of Minnesota and extreme southeast North
Dakota

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 161329Z - 161530Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...A line of strong to locally severe storms may continue north/northeast through at least 10am CDT, posing a threat of a few strong/damaging gusts and perhaps isolated hail reports. However,
due to the localized nature of the threat and uncertainty regarding
the persistence of the line, watch issuance is not currently
expected.

DISCUSSION...A leading line/trailing stratiform convective system
has organized across parts of North Dakota and Minnesota this
morning and is progressing north/northeast around 35 kt. Although
12Z soundings and mesoanalysis suggest notable mixed-layer
inhibition is present, low-level stability does not appear large
enough to prevent stronger downdraft momentum from reaching the
surface. Recent observed gusts around 45-55 mph seem to confirm this
thinking.

The presence of aforementioned convective inhibition casts some
uncertainty on the maintenance of this system, but steep mid-level
lapse rates, ample effective shear, and northeasterly low-level flow
(i.e., into the line) may maintain convective intensity through
mid/late morning. The strongest cells, capable of locally damaging
winds and perhaps isolated severe hail, would likely be focused
along a theta-e ridge axis from west-central to north-central
Minnesota. Nonetheless, watch issuance is not currently anticipated
due to uncertainty regarding the persistence/organization of this
threat.

..Picca/Grams.. 06/16/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DLH...MPX...FGF...ABR...

LAT...LON 46059723 46509741 47079707 47909620 48659539 48789496
48749462 48509361 47549402 46619467 45819501 45509572
45779683 45919705 46059723



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