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ACUS11 KWNS 141850
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 141850
CAZ000-142045-

Mesoscale Discussion 0104
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1250 PM CST Thu Feb 14 2019

Areas affected...Central California - particularly within the San
Joaquin Valley

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 141850Z - 142045Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated/briefly severe convection may occur through the
afternoon across the discussion area. A WW issuance is currently
not anticipated.

DISCUSSION...A band of relatively persistent convection has
developed across portions of Calaveras and Tuolumne Counties in
California over the past hour. Within the pre-convective
environment, sunshine has allowed for surface warming, with 60s F
surface temperatures and mid 50s F dewpoints boosting MUCAPE values
into the 500 J/kg range. Additionally, terrain-related backing of
low-level flow beneath strong southwesterly mid-level winds aloft
have boosted 0-3 km SRH values to around 225 m2/s2 (based on latest
VAD data at HNX). The CAPE/shear combination suggests some
potential for convection in the discussion area to briefly rotate,
which may result in a very isolated threat for wind damage and
perhaps a brief tornado through at least 00Z. This threat will be
too localized/marginal for a WW issuance, although trends will
continue to be monitored throughout the afternoon.

..Cook/Hart.. 02/14/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...HNX...STO...

LAT...LON 37932104 38282090 38532041 38251990 37511934 37011918
36891908 36511916 36281936 36241979 36412026 36832081
37642108 37932104



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